Tuesday & Wednesday MLB Runline Fades

By Guest
Updated: July 22, 2019

We haven’t even hit August yet, but with around 60 games left to be played, we are still a bit too far away to tell who’s in. We could have some teams go on mad win-streaks to creep into a wild card spot from the middle of their divisions; you never know.

For now, let’s look at a few teams to bet against at Bovada Sportsbook over the next couple of days.

Tuesday Fades

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros

Tuesday’s matchup between the top two teams in the American League West provides a rare occasion where two pitchers to fade go head to head. Mike Fiers has a 3.64 ERA and but a whopping 5.36 xFIP, as long as this disparity continues, he’ll be an auto-fade moving forward. But Wade Miley throws a wrench into the system with his 3.25 ERA and 4.42 xFIP. We’ll want to check back on Tuesday morning to see if league averages have pushed Wade Miley’s xFIP back down to a 4.25 or lower. If so, we should feel extremely confident fading Oakland on the runline.

At this point, because both pitchers should be faded, this is just a lean. But Because Fiers numbers show serious regression, the Astros are at home, and the A’s are only batting .250 against lefties, the lean is to bet against Fiers and the A’s on the Runline.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Reds are visiting the Brewers in Milwaukee on Tuesday. It’s likely that Tanner Roark and the Reds will be listed as fairly hefty underdogs against Zach ‘baby-face’ Davies and the Brew Crew at home. Davies is riding an 8-2 record with a solid 2.79 ERA. When we look at Roark’s 3.97 ERA and 5-6 record the automatic lean goes to the Brewers right? Wrong. Take the Reds to cover the +1.5 Runline that they are likely to get. Zach Davies has an xFIP of 5.19. Much like Mike Fiers of the A’s this shows that he is beginning to slip deeply into regression. So, we are going to take the Reds +1.5. The Brewers probably still win, but not by two runs or more.

Wednesday Fades

Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves

Brad Keller and Julio Teheran will go head-to-head on Wednesday. The Leaders of the National League East. At first glance, Teheran might seem like the better bet, especially with home-field advantage and one of the best teams in the National League. But he’s lost three in a row, and his xFIP to ERA ratio is 5.21/3.61. So we should expect Julio Teheran to slip further as the season goes on. Take the Royals +1.5 runs on Wednesday, and depending on the price, they might be a good pick to win outright as well.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

Leaders of the AL Central and AL East go at it on Wednesday, so odds-wise, it’s hard to say who’ll be favored. Odorizzi is 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA, and J.A. Happ is 8-5 with a 4.86 ERA. So we have to assume that the Yankees are going to come into this game in Minneapolis as the underdogs. That said, don’t bank on the Twinnies to cover the Runline. He gave up 6 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings against the A’s last time out, and his xFIP is 4.72 which would have keyed people into a possible poor performance against the A’s ahead of time. Look for him to continue his slide and take Happ and the Yankees to cover the Runline in Twinny-Town.

If you follow all of these, you’re most likely win two-thirds of the time.