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When deciding upon which fantasy baseball players to draft and which to leave for the next owner, often we are apt to go with players who get a lot of attention in the media or those “hot hands” who may (or may not) deliver the stats for your fantasy baseball team.
When taking a closer look at statistics, it can often be misleading as to which is the better player to add to your fantasy team. By simply comparing individual player stats side by side, we can often get a better idea of a player’s fantasy value, especially when it comes to draft position. After all, where a player is drafted is one of the most important things to consider when building value into your roster.
Let’s consider a few players heading into 2012 based upon their 2011 performance and see if the numbers back up the hype.
When considering any player, it is often easy to get caught up in the hype (or “over-hype”) of one player versus another.
Putting all hype aside and looking strictly at the bare numbers helps to cut to the chase. We’ll start with middle infielders:
Player #1 put up the following stats in 2011 and is being drafted 52nd overall:
.293 batting average, 26 runs, nine home runs, 25 runs batted in and seven stolen bases.
Player #2 put up the following numbers in 2011 and is being selected 184th overall:
.272 BA, 24 R, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 5 SB
Is Jason Kipnis undervalued in fantasy leagues?
Player #1 is Brett Lawrie. Player #2 is Jason Kipnis. Lawrie’s average draft position is 132 spots higher than Kipnis. Is it worth it? You decide.
Moving on to outfielders, player #1 put up the following stats in 2011 and is being drafted 29th overall:
.259 BA, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 23 SB
Player #2 put up the following stats in 2011 and is being drafted 82nd overall:
.243 BA, 82 R, 23 HR, 81 RBI, 36 SB
I, for one, would gladly give up 53 draft positions to get B.J. Upton (#2 player) instead of Andrew McCutchen (#1 player).
Moving on to pitchers, player #1 put up the following stats in 2011:
171 innings pitched, 3.74 earned run average, 1.10 walks plus hits per innings pitched and 173 strikeouts.
Player #2 put the following numbers on the board in 2011:
141.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 K
Player #1 is Michael Pineda who is being drafted 90th overall; and player #2 is Brandon Beachy being drafted out of the 136th spot. I’ll take Beachy every day of the week.
The lesson to be learned?
Don’t believe the hype. Believe the numbers.
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