2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Why Los Angeles Angels’ Jered Weaver is a Top 10 Pitcher

By Nick
Updated: April 18, 2011

Photo taken from Google Images c/o Zimbio

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s Jered Weaver tossed another quality start on Friday, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits in seven innings—against a very potent White Sox lineup in Chicago.

This comes after Weaver’s absolute gem last Sunday, when he limited the Blue Jays’ lineup to just one run on four hits in 7 2/3 innings. Weaver walked four and fanned a career-high 15.

The first pitcher to four wins this season, Weaver now boasts a 1.30 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, and leads the majors in strikeouts (31), while issuing just nine walks in 27 2/3 innings.

The 28-year-old is making a strong case to be considered as a top-10 starting pitcher, and here’s why:

After establishing himself as a first-half pitcher in each of his first four major league seasons, Jered Weaver dominated all of 2010, posting career-best totals in innings (224 1/3), K/9 (9.35) and BB/9 (2.17).

In fact, the advanced stats suggest Weaver was a completely different pitcher in 2010. Consider the following:

Strikeout Rate

2008: 7.74
2009: 7.42
2010: 9.35

Walk Rate

2008: 2.75
2009: 2.82
2010: 2.17

ERA

2008: 4.33
2009: 3.75
2010: 3.01

WHIP

2008: 1.28
2009: 1.24
2010: 1.07

Batting Average Against

2008: .253
2009: .241
2010: .220

So what was the difference between last year compared to ‘08 and ‘09? Was it Luck?

Nope.

2010 BABIP: .276 (career .283)
2010 LOB rate: 75.7 percent (career .75.5 percent)
2010 HR/FB rate: 7.8 percent (career 7.9 percent)

Heck, even Weaver’s FIP (3.06) and xFIP (3.51) suggest his 2010 campaign was legit.

There real difference appears to be in the evolution of his fastball and curveball, checking in at 13.0 and 9.7 runs above average, respectively. When combined with his above-average slider (3.1 runs above average) and changeup (8.4 runs above average), Weaver’s pitching repertoire is one of the most dynamic in the majors.

This, in turn, led to elite totals in the ‘that’s nasty’ pitching categories:

Contact rate: 75.4 percent (6th)
Zone contact rate: 79.2 percent (1st)
Swinging strike rate: 11.2 percent (4th)
O-swing rate: 33.5 percent (7th)

Expect the Angels’ ace to continue his dominance on his way to solidifying his status as a top-10 pitcher.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	224.1	13	9.35	2.17	3.01	1.07
3-year average	201	13	8.22	2.56	3.65	1.19
2011 FBI Forecast	221	15	8.8	2.35	3.3	1.13

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Nick Kappel is the founder of FantasyBaseballInsiders.com, the most unique, yet reliable source for fantasy baseball information on the web. Fantasy Baseball Insiders will serve as your year-around knowledge base for fantasy baseball, providing updated player rankings, projections, advanced strategies, statistical analysis and more.

As a student of the game for 12 years, I’ve learned almost everything there is to know about fantasy baseball. My abundance of wisdom will help to provide superior content, with one goal in mind: helping you win your fantasy league. Contact Nick Kappel: [email protected]

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