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The Ranger's basher Nelson Cruz; Image taken from Getty Images

Nearly a month has passed since the 2009 fantasy baseball season began, and now’s the time to start making important moves. Turning a profit on a hot start can be vital to your team’s future success.

With that in mind, I’ve highlighted several players who’s hot starts you should buy, and others you should sell – while you still can.

BUY

Brandon Inge – That’s right! I’m buying Inge’s hot start – to an extent. Inge has reached based in each of Detroit’s 21 games this season, boosting his OBP to .447. That number, I assure you, will go down. Judging by his .238 career BA, his .319 batting clip is sure to go down as well.

Inge’s power is the part of his game that I’m buying, based on his career-high 27 HR in 2006. While his numbers to this point put him on an MVP-like pace, I’m expecting his production to slow down. He should, however, provide good power numbers, and remains eligible at Catcher, 3B and OF in Yahoo! Leagues.

PACE represents the player’s 162-game (32 starts for SP) pace based on their currents stats. PROJ represents what I project the player’s stat line will be at the end of the season. These numbers are based off of games played before Thursday, April 30.

Aaron Hill – People often forget about Hill’s 2007 campaign, which saw him smash 17 HR and turn in a .291 BA. A concussion ended his 2008 season in late May, but judging by his hot start in ‘09; He’s back!

Hill’s .376 batting clip is sure to drop, but his .289 career mark suggests his BA won’t drop quite as far as the aforementioned Inge. Don’t forget, Hill was Toronto’s first round pick in 2003, so the talent is there. While his current power-pace may be a bit far-fetched, expect the 27-year-old Hill to continue blossoming into a top five fantasy 2B.

Josh Johnson – I don’t usually buy into young pitchers who have had as much shoulder problems as Johnson has, but in this case, I’m compelled to make an exception.

Johnson returned from Tommy John surgery in July of 2008, and finished 7-1 in 14 starts. His results in 2009 have been even better, posting a 2.60 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and a 32/6 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 IP.

Don’t expect him to continue striking out a batter per inning, because he doesn’t have extremely overpowering stuff (7.2 K/9 in minors). You can, however, expect 2009 to be Johnson’s breakout season, as he places himself in the same breath as other young hurlers such as Chad Billingsley and Yovani Gallardo.

Nelson Cruz – “Quadruple-A” has shed his nickname, and is hammering major-league pitching…finally!

Cruz’s raw power is well-known throughout the minor leagues, and he now finds himself in a perfect situation with the best offense in baseball. With Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Josh Hamilton continuing to bat in front of him, expect the newest “Power Ranger” to continue his breakout season, just as I had predicted.

SELL

Erik Bedard – I may be going out on a limb here, because Bedard’s totals through five starts (2-1 31 IP 32 K, 6 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) are hard to ignore. However, the 30-year-old pitcher has eclipsed 180 innings just twice in his big-league career. Add that to the fact that his career WHIP is a whopping 1.33, and you too, will begin to see that Bedard is NOT a fantasy ace.

Pitchers not named Johan are just too inconsistent to trust. Turn a profit on this southpaw before its too late!

Matt Cain – Don’t be fooled by Cain’s 2.08 ERA through four starts. If you read my article, “How To Predict a Down Year” you know that Cain’s 1.31 WHIP is a major red flag.

The 2002 first round pick has yet to reach his full potential, thanks in large part to his career 3.79 BB/9. Cain is still only 24, so he’s got plenty of time to get things figured out.

Until then, don’t let him bring your staff down. Find someone who sees the 2.08 ERA as an indication of a breakout season, and turn a profit on this young, inconsistent pitcher.

Jarrod Washburn – I shouldn’t have to say this, but just in case…DO NOT, under any circumstances, add Jarrod Washburn to your roster! His 3-1 3.42 ERA AND 1.10 WHIP in four starts is a test. If you pick him up, you fail.

Washburn hasn’t been fantasy relevant since 2002. Here are his ERA and WHIP totals since 2004, to prove my point:

Enough said.

Hank Blalock – If you own Hank, you’re probably thinking, “I wonder if Blalock is over his torn hamstring/shoulder inflammation/stiff neck/carpal tunnel, or can he recapture his 2004 form which saw him hit 32 HR and drive in 110 RBI?”

My money is on the former, because Blalock has been waiver wire material for 201 out of 324 games over the past two seasons.

Even in 2006, his last full season , he hit just .266 with 16 HR. Those are decent numbers for your catcher, but not your 3B. Don’t expect Blalock to hit five HR every month. Actually, don’t even expect him to play in a game every month. If you can get anything of value for Blalock, pull the trigger.

What do you guys think? Who’s on your buy/sell list? I’d love to hear your thoughts!

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