Who will remain in 1st Place and how long will they last?
AL East
Currently in first place is the Tampa Bay Rays. Although I think they are the real deal, this is too strong of a division for them to remain in 1st place by the All Star break. Likewise, I don’t envision the Yankees staying under .500 or staying in last place. The Rays will be above .500 and probably be in 3rd place behind the Yankees and the Red Sox.
AL Central
This one is a hard one, if the Sox pitching stays on top of it’s game, then they have a good chance of taking first place, but they’ll need their bats, too. The opposite holds true for the Tigers, who are not out of this race in my opinion. They’re just way too talented offensively. But in reality, it’s anyone’s division, everyone, that is, except the Royals.
AL West
This race is almost over as I do not see the A’s sticking around for the long haul and Seattle doesn’t seem to have enough hitting to overtake the Angels. As far as Texas goes, most of their offense rests on the shoulders of the ultimate comeback kid, Josh Hamilton, and if he is hurt even half as much as he was in 2007, that will hurt the Ranger’s chances.
NL East
It’s a nice story, but I don’t see the Marlins outlasting the Phillies, Braves or Mets in this division. However, I will change my mind and give them the nod over the Nationals. The big three will come down to whoever is playing the best ball down the stretch both offensively and with their pitching.
NL Central
Lou might just lead the Cubs to the division title this year, but I don’t see them going deep into the playoffs as of right now. St. Louis will drop, at some point, like a rock due to all of the injuries to the pitching staff as guys start coming down to earth again. The fate of the Brewers rests upon either Gagne starting to pitch like Gagne once again or they find a more reliable closer. Houston is an interesting choice here, it will be fun to see how they fare as the season progresses. The Reds might suffer the same fate as the Brewers due to their own woes with their new closer and the Pirates will once again remain in last place.
NL West
The Diamondbacks might just go the whole year in first place unless Torre can muster up some magic with the Dodgers in the second half. Although SF has good young pitching outside of Zito, they are anemic in the hitting department and can not even last in the middle of this division once the Padres and Rockies right their ships. And they both will! The Rockies offense is just too good and the Padres just need to start hitting (and they will) and they also need both Peavy & Young back from the DL.
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One Response
I’ve got a completely different outlook on the rest of the season. Tampa won’t fall too far behind the Red Sox; they’ve played admirably (1.11 runs scored for every 1 run allowed) against the 6th-toughest schedule in the majors.
Exactly right on the White Sox – they’re kicking butt and taking names. But I bet Cleveland is the only other team to finish the season .500 or over.
I really do think the Athletics will win the division. They have a better run ratio (1.175 runs scored to every 1 allowed) than the Angels (1.038) and have scored better against a tougher schedule. Oakland wins the West by about 4 games.
I think Florida can take #3 in the NL East, but no higher. Atlanta and Philadelphia are the ones to watch – and those two have been trading successes pretty evenly for the past month. Right now, Philly wins by a game.
The Central is a bit of a mystery, but I think the final order will be Chicago, St. Louis, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, then Milwaukee. As poor as the Cards were at season’s beginning, they are showing a peculiar propensity towards winning when I least expect it.
Arizona wins the West by 10 games. Enough said.
Bonus wild card picks: Tampa Bay and Atlanta.