Taking a Look at Pitch Efficiency

By Scott Barzilla
Updated: June 18, 2011

Last time we looked at runs scored, hitting categories, and managerial efficiency. Today, we are doing the same with runs scored, pitching categories, and managerial efficiency. Naturally, we are first looking to see how teams did in the various categories. Instead of boring you with numbers, we will go with their rankings in the different categories with the distance between that category and their overall ranking.

Most would point to ERA, but that is too easy and ERA isn’t predictable from season to season. The whole idea is to see if you can find individual statistics that may be reproducible and see how they correlate with runs scored. The first categories are simple. We include DER (defense efficiency rating) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) to see whether fielders or pitchers have a stronger effect on runs scored. Those two should have stronger correlations than the others because they are all encompassing statistics. The final two categories break down pitching numbers into the types of balls in play (groundball/fly ball rate) and the other DIPS (strikeout to walk ratio). Since 2011 isn’t even half way through, we will look at 2010.

	Runs	DER	FIP	K/BB	GB/FB	COMP
Padres	1	7/6	2/1	3/2	5/4	4.25
Giants	2	6/4	3/1	9/7	28/26	11.50
Athletics	3	1/2	20/17	20/17	7/4	12.00
Braves	4	11/7	1/3	5/1	1/3	4.50
Phillies	5	10/5	11/6	1/4	5/0	6.75
Cardinals	6	12/6	7/1	10/4	2/4	7.75
Rays	7	2/5	15/8	4/3	30/23	12.75
Mets	8	16/8	12/4	23/15	9/1	15.00
Twins	9	23/14	9/0	2/7	12/3	11.50
Reds	10	9/1	18/8	13/3	21/11	15.25
Rangers	11	4/7	22/11	16/5	28/17	17.50
Dodgers	12	8/4	4/8	6/6	15/3	8.25
Yankees	13	5/8	25/12	16/3	19/6	16.25
Mariners	14	3/11	22/8	15/1	21/7	14.00
Angels	15	12/3	16/1	24/9	23/8	18.75
White Sox	16	27/11	5/11	8/8	11/5	12.75
Marlins	17	24/7	10/7	18/1	16/1	17.00
Rockies	18	25/7	6/12	7/11	4/14	10.50
Blue Jays	19	19/0	13/6	12/7	8/11	13.00
Astros	20	27/7	8/12	11/9	13/7	14.75
Nationals	21	19/2	18/3	20/1	9/12	16.50
Tigers	22	16/6	21/1	25/3	16/6	19.50
Red Sox	23	12/11	14/9	22/1	19/4	16.75
Indians	24	19/5	26/2	30/6	3/21	19.50
Cubs	25	22/3	16/9	19/6	16/9	18.25
Orioles	26	15/11	29/3	27/1	27/1	24.50
Brewers	27	29/2	24/3	13/14	25/2	22.75
Dbacks	28	16/12	30/2	25/3	26/2	24.25
Royals	29	26/3	28/1	29/0	23/6	26.50
Pirates	30	30/0	27/3	28/2	13/17	24.50
Difference	—	181	174	157	228	—-

For those of you that read the last piece, you know these correlations are pretty weak. For what it’s worth, the strikeout to walk ratio is the strongest. One of the things we do notice is that teams that tend to be strong in one area (say DER) are weak in FIP and vice versa. So, put them together and maybe you get something stronger. Still, in order to truly test correlations we need to keep digging. For now, we can use the offensive and defensive scores to rate managers. Like with Pythagoras, it’s a bit weak.

	Hitting	Pitching	Total	Pythag
Arizona	-4.40	-3.75	-8.15	-4
Atlanta	-1.20	0.50	-0.70	-2
Baltimore	-5.90	-1.50	-7.40	+3
Boston	2.80	-6.25	-3.45	+1
Chicago AL	2.10	-3.25	-1.15	+2
Chicago NL	0.40	-6.75	-6.35	+2
Cincinnati	2.40	5.25	7.65	-1
Cleveland	-6.20	-4.50	-10.70	-1
Colorado	-0.70	-7.50	-8.20	-3
Detroit	1.10	-2.50	-1.40	-1
Florida	1.60	0.00	1.60	-1
Houston	-0.20	-5.25	-5.45	+8
Kansas City	-6.90	-2.50	-9.40	+2
Las Angeles A	3.60	3.75	7.35	+1
Las Angeles N	-0.70	-3.75	-4.45	+2
Milwaukee	-2.50	-4.25	-6.75	+1
Minnesota	1.80	2.50	4.30	+2
New York A	5.00	3.25	8.25	-2
New York N	-4.70	7.00	3.30	-2
Oakland	-5.70	9.00	3.30	-4
Philadelphia	5.10	1.75	6.85	+2
Pittsburgh	-1.70	-5.50	-7.20	+4
San Diego	1.50	3.25	4.75	-1
San Francisco	-1.20	9.50	8.30	-2
Seattle	-2.60	0.00	-2.60	+2
St. Louis	0.10	1.75	1.85	-5
Tampa Bay	9.30	5.75	15.05	0
Texas	4.80	6.50	11.30	-1
Toronto	4.60	-6.00	-1.40	+1
Washington	-4.00	-5.50	-9.50	-3

It’s funny how we perceive things. Look at the following data and you would swear that Tony La Russa was overrated. Oops. I think we can agree Joe Maddon is one of the best managers in baseball if not the best. I think we can also agree that Manny Acta is definitely saving his job this year. Still, I would say those rankings are more descriptive than the Pythagorean records.