Braves Run Scored, Run Scored Against Analysis

By Michael Hankinson
Updated: September 22, 2009

There’s Hope in Atlanta for 2010!

I’ve noticed this year, like many before, that the Braves seem to lose against teams that have losing records. I’ve got guesses for this, but with 162 games, all teams will do this on occasion anyway.

DENVER - JULY 09: Starting Tommy Hanson #48 o...

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One such guess is that the Braves often score less runs against certain teams than the rest of the league would.

The success of the Braves has been built around great pitching staffs, but it seems that many losses have been due to the lack of run support. Let’s look at this a little.

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Using the stats from the MLB website, the Braves have the 4th best Runs Scored Against in the National League. This is very good considering the pitching injuries they have had. Philadelphia and Colorado are ranked 6th and 7th, with San Francisco, LA and St. Louis ranked 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, who are all above them in the playoff scenarios.

Having such a good pitching staff, the Braves should at least be in the running for the playoffs. Naturally, that leads us to Runs Scored. I am surprised to see that the Braves are ranked 6th in Runs Scored! The Phillies are ranked 1st, with the Rockies a strong 2nd, the Dodgers 4th. The Giants are ranked 13th, so they are in the running for a playoff spot due to their great pitching staff.

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If we use the average ranks of the Runs Scored Against and the Runs Scored, we see that the Braves are tied for 4th place in the predicted winning record rank. If we look at the actual and predicted winning record ranks of the teams with the current playoff positions, we see that all are predicted to be at least in the top 4 spots.

With the wild card format, a team with at least the 4th best winning record will usually make the playoffs. The Braves are currently tied with the Marlins for the 6th best record. The Rockies have the 4th best with Atlanta only 4.5 games behind. The Giants are one game ahead of the Braves as well.

: Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Let’s look at the second half quickly. The Braves are 3rd in runs scored since the All-Star break. Thanks to foibles in the MLB website, I cannot tell you their rank in Runs Scored Against in the second half, but I can assure you, it is good. In other words, the Braves are trending upward in both pitching and hitting. Unfortunately, it looks like this is a little too late – the stumble in the first half made it quite difficult to overcome.

This, of course, means nothing in the real world. As a Braves fan we now know that the Braves are on the right track, and, are likely to be in the picture next year, as they will maintain their pitching staff and beef up the offense. I am looking forward to next year! The phrase ‘Wait til Next Year’ means something this year!

Team (9/17/2009)	Runs Scored Against Rank	Runs Scored Rank	Winning Record Rank	Average of Runs Rank	Predicted Winning Record Rank
Braves	4	6	6 (tied with Marlins)	5	4
Dodgers	2	4	1	3	1
Rockies	7	2	4	4.5	3
Giants	1	13	5	7	7
Cardinals	3	7	2 (tied with Phillies)	5	4
Marlins	11	3	6 (tied with Braves)	7	6
Phillies	6	1	2 (tied with Cardinals)	3.5	2

GO BRAVES!

(Please note I have used Runs Scored against, since this includes runs scored due to errors. ERA does not.)

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Michael Hankinson grew up in Atlanta watching Hank Aaron, Phil Niekro, Dale Murphy and others through many mediocre Braves years. He would hide the radio under the pillow and listen to the Braves with the earpiece while sleeping. He remembers being very upset when the Mets nonchalantly thumped the Braves out of the playoffs. Looking back, they had no chance against the Amazin' Mets. It seemed all of his friends were at the game when Hank Aaron broke Ruth's record. The organ in the outfield was owned by his friend's family. Of course, don't forget the tepee! Remember how Nocahoma sealed his fate by asking for a pay raise? And don't forget Ted and his role putting the Braves on the television map. Michael's grandfather was also an avid Braves fan, but was wont to say often 'Same ole Braves' as only an old man could say. He currently is an IT consultant for insurance companies, has a great wife and four smart children. He reads many baseball books, especially those dealing with strategies and the statistical side of baseball. He participates in fantasy baseball leagues, though not very well. He took his future wife out on the first date to a Braves game where he promptly embarrassed himself (or her, really) by cheering when Mark Grace doubled in a run since Grace was on his fantasy team.

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