Will Joe Mauer Continue The Power?

By Nick
Updated: May 25, 2009

: Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

The fantasy baseball community is buzzing over Joe Mauer‘s newfound power stroke since returning from the DL on May 1. After his grand slam against the White Sox on Thursday, Mauer is batting .417 with 8 HR in just 72 at-bats. That’s 1 long ball every 9th at-bat.

The question is: Can he keep it up?

Conventional wisdom would say no, but let’s crunch some numbers just to be sure.

At his current pace, Mauer would finish the season with 54 HR. That’s 6 more than his career total in 4 plus seasons prior to 2009. Based on that, it’s safe to say his HR rate will drop; but by how much?

Between 2005 and 2008, Mauer averaged about 10 HR per year, or 1 every 47 at-bats. During that time, he averaged 488 at-bats per season.

At that pace, Mauer would hit about 9 dingers from here on out. Add that number to the 8 bombs he’s already hit, and Mauer finishes 2009 with a career-high 17 HR. That’s a decent total for any catcher, but when you consider 8 of them were hit in May, that averages out to only about 2 jacks per month for the rest of the season. Not too impressive.

Mauer’s current HR/FB rate of 36.4 percent, however, is impressive and explains the early power surge. Based on his career mark of 10 percent, there’s plenty of reason to believe he won’t sustain his current pace.

So how do we know Mauer will revert back to hitting HR at his lousy 1 per 47 at-bats rate?

We don’t know for sure. 72 at-bats is such a small sample size compared to 4 plus seasons, so it’s more likely that his career averages will balance the numbers out.

However, while Mauer made his major league debut in 2004, it’s important to remember that the former No. 1 pick in the 2001 draft is still only 26 years old. If a player’s prime years come between 25 and 29, Mauer could finally be tapping into his power potential.

Call me crazy, but I’m a believer–sort of.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
PACE	115	54	162	0	.417
PROJ	90	22	90	4	.325

PACE represents Mauer’s current pace based on his career average of 488 at-bats per season.. PROJ represents what I project his stat line will be at the end of the season.These numbers are based on games played before Friday, May 22..

← Previous Story Tracking the Top Prospects: Players 1-10

Next Story → The Rays After 40 Games

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Nick Kappel is the founder of FantasyBaseballInsiders.com, the most unique, yet reliable source for fantasy baseball information on the web. Fantasy Baseball Insiders will serve as your year-around knowledge base for fantasy baseball, providing updated player rankings, projections, advanced strategies, statistical analysis and more.

As a student of the game for 12 years, I’ve learned almost everything there is to know about fantasy baseball. My abundance of wisdom will help to provide superior content, with one goal in mind: helping you win your fantasy league. Contact Nick Kappel: [email protected]

CryptoCasinos