Baseball Reflections

What’s happening in baseball as of May 1st

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The national pastime is finally back. After a lot of uncertainty during the winter caused by the 99-day lockout in the major leagues, baseball finally returned. The fans were jubilant, the hot stove was as hot as it ever was, having to cover the normal duration of free agency in just a couple of weeks. Some splashes were made, teams getting ready for the new season and to finally get it going.

There’s so much that’s special about April baseball. Opening Day, rookies and prospects making their presence known, crazy statistical outliers… This April didn’t let us down. So, without further ado, here are our top 3 storylines of the first month of the season.

Miguel Cabrera’s 3000th hit

Miguel Cabrera is a legend of this game. Native of Venezuela, he came into the league in 2003 playing for the Florida Marlins at the age of 20. Today he’s 39 and this past month joined an exclusive club in the major leagues. Although he had to wait a bit to reach the milestone, on April 23rd at Comerica Park, Miggy collected his 3000th off of Colorado Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. It was a long time coming, following the Yankees skipper’s decision to intentionally walk him two days before and then a rainout the following day. But then it finally came – Cabrera finished the game, the first of the double-header, 2-for-4 at the plate and batting in 2 runs in thumping the Rockies 13-0.

With that hit he became just the seventh player in the history of the majors to reach 3000 hits and 500+ homers. He did all this maintaining his career average above .300. Regardless of whether you put meaning to batting average or not, this is impressive.

The season, though, is not going according to plans. It’s still early and Miggy can rebound, but in April he’s slashing only .258/.319/.290 and 81 wRC+ (100 being the league average). Cabrera is still to hit a homerun this season, after hitting only 37 in his past three years (including the COVID-shortened 2020 season). He’s been pretty cold as of late, too. Since that 3000th hit he hit for .174 average (4-for-23), drove in 2 and struck out 7 times.

Is the big rebound coming in May? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Clayton Kershaw’s flirt with history – and then making it

Last season the Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw was sidelined with a forearm injury in October. Effectively this meant he was lost for the Dodgers in the offseason. The Dodgers eventually fell to the future World Series champs Braves in the NLCS. Kershaw was in his last year on his contract and free agency was looming over his head. The game against the Milwaukee Brewers on October 1 could have been his last on the mound in Dodger blue.

It wasn’t. Kershaw returned to Dodger Stadium on a 1-year, $17M contract. In his first outing following the injury and putting ink on the new contract, he immediately flirted with history.

The Minnesota Twins were in town and Kershaw was ready to roll. In 7 innings pitched he retired 21 batters, 13 on strikeouts and allowed no hits or walks. It was history in the making. Dave Roberts decided to step in and pull Kershaw out of the game. The fans didn’t take lightly to the unpopular decision. Though knowing Kershaw’s injury history and short spring training stint, it made all the sense to save Kershaw’s arm. The Dodgers were up by 3 and added some insurance runs in the 8th and 9th. Justin Bruihl and Alex Vesia finished the combined no-hitter.

Clayton Kershaw continued firing on all cylinders throughout April. In four games on the mound his record is firm at 3-0 and an ERA of 2.35. He also owns the second lowest WHIP on the young season (0.70), behind only Justin Verlander (0.69).

Here is how Kershaw rates among the top starters in April:

Kershaw is still at the very top of starting pitchers through his four starts. As if the injuries last season hadn’t affected him at all. Among qualifying starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw ranks 2nd in WHIP, 4th in BB/9, 6th in FIP and 7th in K/9.

Additionally, Kershaw adapted his pitch repertoire by using more sliders and less fastballs. His fastball rates are down from 44.0% in 2019 to 38.8% in 2022 and at the same time his slider went up from 39.1% in 2019 to 43.7% this year. It’s been very effective too – the slider saved about 4.4 runs above average, compared to 1.8 saved by the fastball.

Clayton Kershaw did make history later in April – on Saturday, 4/30/2022 in the top of the 4th inning Kershaw struck out Spencer Torkelson. Without context, it would have only meant Torkelson went 0-2 with 2 K’s in his first two AB’s that night. Wider context – that was 2,697th strikeout of Clayton Kershaw’s career, surpassing Hall of Famer Don Sutton to set the franchise record for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He went on to pitch for 6 inning, allowed 4 hits, 1 run, 2 walks and fanned 7, finishing the night with 2,700 strikeouts.

Rookie spotlight – Steven Kwan

With no shortage of rookies in the new season, there were some remarkable performances on both sides of the ball in April.

Most hype at the start of the season was around the Guardians’ outfielder Steven Kwan. Kwan really had an impressive month of April slashing .354/.459/.500 in 61 plate appearances. His impressive wRC+ of a whopping 185 is only second among qualified rookies. The first belongs to Alfonso Rivas III (237) of the Cubs, though he only had 21 PA’s. What’s most impressive about Kwan is his plate discipline – his strikeout rate is only 9.8% is not only among the best in his rookie class, but ranked 8th overall in baseball (minimum of 40 PA’s).

A deep dive into his plate discipline explains the crazy numbers mentioned above – Kwan is swinging at only 50.9% of pitches within the zone and 37.1% overall. When he does swing he makes contact 96.6% of the time when the pitch is in the strike zone and 95.1% overall. So, he’s very selective about his pitches. The swings and misses are at eye-popping low of 1.8%.

After a red-hot start to the season riding a five-game hitting streak, hitting for .667 average and .750 OBP, he cooled off and went 7-for-33 to end the month. He most certainly can’t keep this level of production along the season, but he’s off on the right foot.

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