Robbie Ray: A Fluke or The Real Deal

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In 2021, Robbie Ray managed to shatter all expectations. Producing 3.9 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement and ultimately beating Yankees ace Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young, Ray was now one of the best pitchers in the league – something that no one expected. Before that season, Robbie managed to sign a one-year deal with the Blue Jays for $8 Million. He had relatively little market value, and everyone seemed to agree that he was on the decline. Not even Toronto could have predicted that he would shine so much – they had some faith with the signing, but expectations were not high. Yet, Ray managed to prove everyone wrong. This offseason, he signed a five-year deal worth $115 million with the Seattle Mariners. He is now going to be a constant force to be reckoned with… or is he? Some are suggesting that his 2021 season was a fluke, while others are confident that Robbie will continue his success. In this piece, I aim to find the answer.

As the 2022 season begins and the ace has two starts under his belt, many are getting cold feet. Through these 13.1 Innings Pitched, Ray has a 7.19 FIP (4.91 Expected) and -0.3 fWAR. And while admittedly not great, there is no need to make assumptions based on two of an estimated thirty starts. These numbers will more than likely average out, and will most certainly not represent his end-of-year performance. Predictions need to be based on a more wide array of data, which this certainly does not count towards. Baseball is a game of much variance and change – very large sample sizes are needed to make any type of assumption.

In analyzing this question, his 2021 season needs to be put under intense scrutiny. Advanced and expected stats need to be utilized to help determine sustainability. Hence, Ray’s line for that season is as follows: 2.84 ERA (3.57 Expected), 3.69 FIP (3.36 Expected), 37.2% Groundball Rate, Average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH,  32.1% Strikeout Percentage, and a 6.7% Walk Percentage. These may stand to be only a part of Robbie’s 2021 data, yet they tell a great story of what actually happened. 

The sore thumb sticking out appears to be the difference between his FIP and ERA. Amounting to .85, this shows that Ray was somewhat dependent on his defense. A 3.69 FIP is not very elite, although it is better than the league average. By being this dependent on the field, a change in defensive ability, such as a move to Seattle, could have differing effects on the southpaw. This is generally not considered a positive sign, as the modern-day approach to pitcher evaluation is based on the pitcher’s ability to get their own outs as much as possible. It does help the expected metrics show the opposite case – based on batted ball profiles and other metrics, in a theoretical world, Ray should have had very little reliance on his defense. And while this did not concretely happen, it provides a basis for expected improvement in the future. 

The next things to consider would be his groundball rate and his average exit velocity. Both are forms of Statcast Data, which is keen to understanding a player. His groundball rate is slightly below his career average of 39.5%, which suggests that regression could bite him in the following years. It may not be a big difference (only 2.3%), but it can still lead to an adjustment. Ray has adjusted his mechanics since past years, so to the contrary, last year’s numbers could serve as the new normal. His exit velocity average exhibited a different trend, measuring 0.4 MPH above his average of 90 (dating back to 2015). This would suggest that he allowed harder contact, which usually results in worse performance. That was not the case. This change can more than likely be owed to a steady deviation – all of his measures have been below a 2 MPH difference in that mark. As he gets older, this number’s average could gradually get larger, but I doubt that they will rise much. It tends to rise as his average pitch velocity falls, so he could see trouble down the line. But for the next three years, it seems to be a justified data point that will repeat in some capacity. 

The last part of the line that I want to measure to consider his sustainability is his strikeout and walk rates. At 32.1% and 6.7% respectively, one varies from the mean much more than the other. His average strikeout rate hovers around 29.0%, which is slightly below his 2021 production. Although, I believe this slight rise to not only be justified but possibly understated. In examining his statcast pitch profile, Ray has truly evolved. Robbie now uses a wider variety of pitches, with the new implementation of a changeup in 2021. And although it may not be the most effective pitch (27.8% Whiff Rate), it has enhanced his curveball. Coming in with a 52.5% Whiff Rate last year, it was the most effective pitch of his career. The ability to maintain a bigger arsenal increases the difficulty for a hitter to identify pitches, which suggests elevating performance may be justified. On the other hand, his walk rate seems to be somewhat of a fluke. With his career average being at 10.3%, a roughly 33% decrease in this rate seems highly unlikely. He may have managed to increase his control with experience, although this amount is almost impossible over a single season. I believe he will regress to his average or above in 2022, hovering around a higher rate in the future. As a player has to adjust to a wider range of pitch grips, his control will more than likely be more difficult to manage. Knowing these concepts, we can make an educated guess on the future of Robbie Ray.

The Mariners made a bold move by signing Ray to such a large deal – after all, he is coming off of career highs in value produced. Yet, after evaluating, I believe Robbie Ray will continue to be a dominant ace in baseball. His expected numbers have him producing at an overall higher rate than actual, suggesting that he could be due for a better season. His statcast data is promising – no large deviations from his average were present that would suggest that this year was an outlier. The only notable outlier rate would be his BB%, which is due for some regression. Everything else looked positive, with a new changeup possibly providing reasoning for a better season this year. I can easily see a situation where Ray outdoes his 2021, although I don’t consider this to be the most likely event. Faced with older age (he is now 30), a decaying physical form will lead to less value produced. Ray has had seasons hovering around the 3.5 fWAR mark, which seems to be the most probable prediction for this year, with a slight decrease in the following years. Utilizing these findings, I believe that the Mariners made a good signing. Robbie Ray should provide the value they expected, proving to be a beneficial asset in their future playoff runs. 

Author’s Note:
Thank you for reading my first ever piece with Baseball Reflections! I hope you enjoyed my insight on Robbie Ray, and maybe learned something new. If you enjoyed my thoughts from this article, you can find more of my writing at thedrummeyangle.com. Getting the chance to discuss baseball is my true passion, and I’m very glad I could share an example of that with a group of dedicated fans.