Grading the Trade Deadline: Part 2

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The Deal:

The Cardinals trade Colby Rasmus (and Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters) to the Blue Jays for recently-acquired SP Edwin Jackson, SP Marc Rzepczynski, RP Octavio Dotel, and OF Corey Patterson. The White Sox were also involved in this deal, as the Blue Jays acquired Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen’s Fat Ugly Contract in order to move Jackson as the centerpiece of this deal. I’ll focus on the Blue Jays and Cardinals’

 

Blue Jays: A-

Alex Anthopolous bought low on Rasmus, managing to acquire the young centerfielder for no notable prospects and a few major league players that don’t have nearly the promise Rasmus has shown. If Rasmus can settle in in Toronto, the Jays may be just a few pieces away from considering the possibility of contending with the big wallets populating the top of the AL East.

 

Cardinals: D+

Rasmus had fallen out of favor with the Cardinals’ coaching staff and earned somewhat of a reputation as a dissenter, leading Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous swoop in and snare him, buying low much like he did in the Yunel Escobar trade this past offseason. It’s certainly understandable that the Cardinals would want to move a player they saw as disruptive in the clubhouse, but it surprises me that this was the best offer they received. Rasmus is a controllable player with a reasonably impressive major league resume and considerable promise. GM John Mozeliak may regret selling low if Rasmus begins to fulfill some of his potential after a change in scenery.

 

The Money Math:

 

To Blue Jays

Rasmus: $150,000 remaining this year, projecting $4M, $6M, $8M for arbitration 1, 2, and 3. 0.8 WAR projected this year, 3.1 for each of the next 3 years. Projecting $17M surplus value.

 

Teahen: $1.6M remaining this year, $5.5M next year. Projecting zero or negative WAR, so roughly -$7.1M surplus value.

 

Miller, Tallet, and Walters are basically washes. This deal is about Rasmus.

 

To Cardinals:

Jackson: $3M remaining, 1.4 WAR projected, $4M projected surplus value.

Rzepczynski: $150,000 remaining, $1M, $1.5, $2M projected for arbitration 1, 2, and 3. 0.2 WAR projected this year, 0.8 for each of next 3 years. Projecting $8.4M surplus value.

 

Dotel: $1M remaining, 0 WAR in 2011, projecting -$1M surplus value.

Patterson: $300,000 remaining, 0.2 WAR projected this year, $700,000 surplus value.

 

The Verdict:

I think this makes the trade look better for the Cardinals than it actually is.

 

The 3.1 WAR projection for Rasmus is very conservative, while none of the players the Cardinals received really have much in the way of upside.

 

The Deal:

The Rockies trade Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians for a package of prospects including top arms Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.

 

Indians: B-

This is certainly an aggressive move by the Indians front office, suggesting that while almost no one expected the Indians to be contending at this point in the season, they now expect to push for the AL Central crown. This may be a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to a hot start, as the Indians current playoff odds currently sit at 26.4%, but the Indians want to build on the momentum they’ve created, and they’re hoping Jimenez will be the difference in the tight Central race. With the Indians impressive group of top prospects, including Pomeranz, White, and infielders Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis, they looked to be in a good position to compete next year and beyond. In adding Jimenez, they’re making a strong statement that they’re playing for the present. In my estimation, their small chance this season isn’t worth the potential future studs they gave up, but the fact that Jimenez is cheap and will be under the team’s control through the 2013 season makes that loss much easier to stomach. Additionally, considering the high flameout rates of pitching prospects and the relatively higher long-term values of top hitting prospects, according to Wang’s research, the Indians had to be happy to pick up Jimenez without being forced to move either of their prize positional prospects.

 

Rockies: B

My feeling was that the Rockies could consider contending next year or the year after, so there was no need to get rid of Jimenez and his hugely team-friendly contract. However, Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd was faced with an offer he could not refuse, and agreed to trade Jimenez for several arms he will hope can help replace Jimenez at the top of the rotation over the next couple years. Though the Rockies didn’t need to trade Jimenez, they correctly identified this as the moment at which his value is the highest due to the dearth of starters on the market and the relative abundance of contenders looking for a rotation upgrade. If White and Pomeranz (who is a PTBNL until August 15, when he can officially be named in this deal) pan out, this is a huge win for the Rockies.

 

The Money Math:

 

To Indians:

Jimenez: $1M remaining this year, $2.8M next year, $4.2M in 2013. Projecting 1.3 WAR this season, 5.3 for next two years. Projected $51.5M in surplus value, thanks to Jimenez’s ridiculous contract.

 

To Rockies:

White: Top 26-50 pitching prospect (47 in BA top 100): $15.9M surplus value.

Pomeranz: Top 11-25 pitching prospect (14 in BA midseason update): $15.9M surplus value.

McBride: Grade C hitter, 23 or older: 0.5M surplus value.

Gardner: Grade C pitcher, 23 or older: 1.5M surplus value.

 

The Verdict:

Despite the huge haul, this looks like a win for the Indians, who pick up $17.7M in extra surplus value. The deal would have been much closer if Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd had pushed to force Cleveland to include a top positional prospect in the deal, as Chisenhall ($25.1M projected surplus value) or Kipnis ($23.4M projected) would have been bigger prizes than either pitching prospect.

 

The Deal:

The Padres trade Mike Adams to the Rangers for pitching prospects Robbie Erlin and Joseph Wieland.

 

Rangers: A-

The Rangers needed a bullpen upgrade in order to entertain hopes of a return to the Fall Classic, and in picking up both Adams and Koji Uehara, they certainly got one. Erlin is a big price to pay for an 8th-inning man, but Adams is probably the best in the game, and Texas’ impressive minor league depth allows them to trade a few solid prospects and retain one of the more impressive minor league systems in the league.

 

Padres: A

The Padres played their situation perfectly, with Adams and former Padres pen-mate Heath Bell the most coveted relievers on the market, and engaged in negotiations with a number of different things to insure they’d receive the maximum possible return for their late-inning aces. Though Bell seemed a lock to move in the days leading up to the deadline, the Padres eventually saw the Rangers’ offer for Adams as more enticing than anything they’d be able to receive for Bell and pulled the trigger. Though Bell has the closing experience, Adams was certainly the more valuable reliever, especially due to his being under contract for 2012.

 

The Money Math:

 

To Rangers:

Adams: $750,000 remaining in 2011, $3.1M projected for 2012. Projected 0.6 WAR this year, 1.6 next year. Projecting $7.1M surplus value.

 

To Padres:

Erlin: Grade B pitcher: $7.3M surplus value.

Wieland: Grade B pitcher, $7.3M surplus value.

 

The Verdict:

Erlin and Wieland are both very solid, if not outstanding, pitching prospects. While neither has the stuff to be a true ace, either could reasonably develop into a sold mid-rotation starter, which would make this trade a win for San Diego.

 

Going through these trades, two main trends surprised me. First of all, looking at the returns the Astros received for their outstanding outfielders, Pence’s haul was much larger than the one they received for Bourn. While Pence might be the better player, I don’t think the difference is as large as the prospect packages would suggest. I think the Pence deal is an overpay for the Phillies, while the Braves may have quite a steal in picking up Bourn without dealing any of their outstanding stable of top pitching prospects.

 

Secondly, essentially all of the prospect centerpieces of these trades are pitching prospects, with Singleton the only major exception (as well as the prospects the Mariners received for Erik Bedard). The volatility of pitching prospects seems to be pushing teams to sell their young arms now while their value is highest instead of attempting to develop them and risking their burning out or becoming ineffective. This is right in line with Wang’s research, which suggests that there’s no major difference in pitching prospects throughout BA’s top 100. This is largely due to the high flameout rate for young pitchers, as hitters are generally a much better bet to fulfill their potential. It’s been an exciting deadline, and deals aren’t over yet, as teams have another month to make trades after passing players through waivers. We won’t be able to grade the prospect hauls received at the deadline with any sort of certainty for at least a few years, but for now, it looks like most of the sellers got what they were looking for in young players who they hope will lead them to a brighter future.