Pete’s Preview and Prediction of the ALCS

By Peter Schiller
Updated: October 10, 2008

Right off the bat, you have to mention the injuries. Boston is without 3B Mike Lowell and Tampa is without closer Troy Percival. Boston‘s replacement on the roster goes to RP Mike Timlin, while Tampa has added SP Edwin Jackson.

On paper, Boston has the advantage in 5 of the 9 spots in the line up at 2B with Pedroia, DH with Ortiz, 3B with Youkilis (although it’s a slight edge), LF with Bay and RF with Drew. Tampa ‘s advantage is at C with Navarro, 1B with Pena, SS with Bartlett and CF with Upton. The last two with only a slight edge (SS and CF).

[table=83]

The advantage between the rotation depends upon which Josh Beckett we see in this series. If he’s the dominant force the post-season is use to seeing, then I give the advantage to Boston with the exception of game 4. If, however, Beckett is only at regular season efficiency (most likely), then I have to give the Rays the advantage here. The only chance that I’m wrong in this analysis is if the youthful Rays staff finally starts to show it’s lack of experience and has a meltdown.

The bullpen or middle relief edge goes to Tampa , but the edge at closer is in Boston‘s advantage by far.

[table=85]
I see this series going 6 or 7 games of absolutely exciting baseball! It should not disappoint anyone! The Red Sox and their experience will win out! Play ball!!

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My name is Peter Schiller. I am the creator/owner of Baseball Reflections.com. I’m also a contributing writer. To read more of my work here at Baseball Reflections just click HERE!

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