A Look at the NL Central and Pennant Probabilities

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The NL Central the most up-for-grabs divisions in baseball in 2020.

Both the NL East and NL Central are divisions that only have one team that is essentially considered out of the race from the get-go. In the NL East, that team is the Miami Marlins. In the NL Central, that team is the Pittsburgh Pirates. But recent trade happenings have made the Central division one of the most interesting in the Bigs.

The Pirates Have a 2% Chance

The Buccos have had a rough couple of years and it hasn’t gotten any better as we slide our way into first of the new decade. Their pitching staff has been decimated. Just a couple of short years ago, we thought the Pirates would rebuild quickly and go back to contending for the Central division. But, that’s not the case.

This is why when we look at the futures odds we see the Pirates way back at +5000 or 500 to 1 and +30000 to win the World Series. If we do the math and convert the odds to implied probability, we see that Pittsburgh has just a two-percent chance at winning the division.

The Reds Have a 16.7% Chance

Cincinnati is an interesting club this season. Although their odds put them behind the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals, they may start the season with arguably the best pitching staff in the Central Division and one of the best in the league. On top of this, they are likely to get a huge chunk of their lineup back. So, we should expect Cincy to be in the hunt. Their +500 odds or 50 to 1 imply a near 17 percent chance at taking the division.

The Brewers Have a 26.7% Chance

Milwaukee is looking to go back to back with post-season appearances – but it won’t be easy. 2020 will likely break up their winning dynamic as a handful of guys are on the market. They also may struggle a little with their salary cap, especially as previously made deals come back to bite them a little bit. Yes, I’m speaking of the nearly 5 million dollars going to Josh Hader. The Brewers were one of the weaker pitching teams in the NL Central last year and it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to improve markedly on the starting rotation or pen. That said, they are still going to be a solid team that will get a lot of wins and make things tough on the Cubs and Cards. Their +275 odds on the Vegas boards prove that handicappers are considering the Brew Crew a threat. They have a 26.7 percent chance of stealing the division.

The Cubbies Have a 32.3% Chance

The Chicago Cubs are another team that will be hamstrung by their budget. Still, they have a solid team that can take the NL Central. Even without landing a top free agent, the Cubs are still loaded with talent at that’s why they are listed at +210, with a 32.3 percent probability of winning the pennant. That said, I wonder about team dynamics now that Kris Bryant has filed grievances and lost. So, the Cubbies are in control of their star 3rd baseman for another two years, which is good for the Cubs but it’s clear that Bryant wants out. So, hopefully, it won’t cause any locker room issues or team dynamics problems.

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The Cardinals have a 35.7% Chance

The Cardinals staunched the bleeding resigning Adam Wainwright to a one-year contract. But Michael Wacha has left for the Mets on a one-year deal of his own. Even worse, the Cardinals couldn’t afford to keep Marcell Ozuna. He wanted to stay in St. Louis but the Braves offered the star slugger an 18 million dollar dear for a one-year stint in Georgia.

I think we’ll see St. Louis’ odds adjust and their probability drops down a bit. With this news, the NL Central is truly up for grabs. The Cubbies, Brewers, and Cardinals will all be neck and neck and I think the Reds with their excellent pitching will play a role of upsetter, taking some key wins away from division leaders that detrimentally affect the season outcome.